Washington Commanders at Philadelphia eagles (20:00UK)
PICK: Commanders 19, Eagles 27
The Eagles match up perfectly against the Commanders due to their run-focused offense. Saquon Barkley has been dominant in the playoffs, rushing for 119 and 205 yards in the first two games. The Commanders were the NFL's third-worst team against the run this season, allowing 137.5 rushing yards per game. This gives the Eagles a strong advantage, as they should be able to consistently pick up first downs and control the clock.
Defensively, the Eagles also had the NFL's best pass defense this year, surrendering only 174.2 yards per game through the air. This could lead to turnovers for the Commanders, who are aggressive on fourth downs. However, the Eagles must find a way to contain Jayden Daniels, who has thrown for over 250 yards and two touchdowns in both playoff games so far.
Despite this, the Eagles are the safer pick to advance to the Super Bowl, thanks to their dominant defense and their ground game led by Barkley.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (23:30UK)
PICK: Bills 25, Chiefs 30
The Bills and Chiefs face off in a highly anticipated showdown featuring two of the league's premier quarterbacks: Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. The Bills have had the better offensive season, averaging an impressive 30.9 points per game compared to the Chiefs’ 22.6. However, the Chiefs boast the stronger defense, allowing fewer than 20 points per game on average.
The key for the Chiefs will be limiting Josh Allen’s ability to make plays with his legs. In their regular-season matchup, Allen rushed for 55 yards and a touchdown, playing a pivotal role in the Bills’ 30-21 victory. If the Chiefs can contain his rushing threat, it could force the Bills into more field goal attempts, an area where kicker Tyler Bass has struggled. Bass ranks 29th in the NFL with a field goal percentage of 82.8%, making this a potential advantage for Kansas City.
For the Bills, shutting down Travis Kelce is critical. Kelce was back to his dominant self in the previous round against the Texans, recieving for 117 yards and a touchdown. Without Kelce at his best, the Chiefs have struggled to put up big scoring games this season, as their offense heavily relies on his ability to exploit mismatches.
In this matchup, the defending Super Bowl champions, the Chiefs, have the slight edge. Their defense must slow Allen just enough to give Mahomes the chance to work his magic. Mahomes has a proven track record of delivering in high-pressure moments, and his ability to rise to the occasion could make the difference in a tightly contested game.
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